CoronaVirus – COVID-19/SARS-COV-2

This notice is due to the latest novel CoronaVirus – The COVID-19 Pandemic

We hope you’re all safe and taking any downtime to recharge. It’s a great time to spend on your business. We’re still working from home, as we’ve always done.
Below are our CoronaVirus related links:

• Government’s COVID-19 website, here
• Financial Support can be found, here
• Inland Revenue assistance, here
• Business and Contingency Planning, here
• The Business Hub for all things Xero, here

If you need cash flow planning I’m happy to work with you. If you rent commercial premises, then check your lease agreement. You may be entitled to the reduced rent. If in doubt check in with your lawyer.

Any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me.

Additional CoronaVirus Related Information

Further material for you during the national state of emergency and beyond

Below you’ll find another list of links plus other such info we found both interesting and useful. Knowing things that may save your life and or the life of others seems fairly essential given the current circumstances. Understanding this virus, any ramifications and or solutions is wise.

This CoronaVirus is known as SARS-COV-2

• SARS = Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
• COV = CoronaVirus
• Version 2

The CoronaVirus disease is called COVID-19

• CO = Corona
• VI = Virus
• D = Disease
• 19 = in the Year 2019

COVID-19 / SARS-COV-2 is CoronaVirus #7. Corona is Latin for crown.

Four essential things to help manage the spread

Some useful research materials linked for reference and sharing

Presently researching Protease Inhibitors, Anti/Androgens, TMPRSS2 and associated aspects. Aspiration is also of interest given the plausibility of known adverse events associated with the adenovirus and or mRNA vaccine platforms, specifically blood clotting and myocarditis respectively, potentially in part being the result of intravenous administration.

Omicron and Subvariants thereof

More recently we’ve been watching omicron evolve. To date, things are looking like we’re moving towards an endemic situation. Omicron has moved into the upper respiratory which may be associated with a recently discovered genomic insert only seen in hCoV-229E. The increase in transmission will probably see said variant become the global dominant.

Furthermore, omicron has been broken down into three subvariants, those being BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3. BA.1 is essentially the initial variant, BA.3 followed and doesn’t appear to be anywhere near as fit as BA.2 which is potentially heading towards eliminating BA.1. BA.2 is also known as stealth omicron. It got the name because unlike BA.1 it has amino acids 69 and 70. The Alpha variant was also missing these amino acids, whereas Delta the dominant variant, had said amino acids. We also now have BA.4 and BA.5 plus a whole bunch more will die out as the dominant ones increase.

In addition to BA.1, BA.2, BA.3, BA.4 and BA.5 we now have some new variants of concern to keep an eye on. These are XD, XE and XF being recombinant variants of Delta and or Omicron. This essentially means people had cells infected (in this case) with 2 or 3 different variants at the same time. The current X series subvariant of most concern is XE. Based on past events I suspect that this recombinant subvariant, which is based on BA.1 and BA.2 reintroduces amino acids 69 and 70. I have to check the genome sequence to be sure but articles suggest that the S gene or spike protein comes from BA.2 and therefore includes amino acids 69 and 70 as I previously suspected.

Boosters and Covid Passport

Boosters are also a topic of interest with antibodies waning in next to no time and potentially faster with each subsequent dose making it unreasonable to expect to avoid mild infections. B and T cells appear to remain strong and a boost or two helps to broaden the level of protection. Given the fact that antibodies wane as part of human biology, it stands to reason we can’t keep taking boosters to maintain a so-called satisfactory level of neutralizing antibodies. Those at high risk, such as those over 65 and or with comorbidities should be boosted. Others, not so much. No one should need more than four doses. Yearly boosters for the most part shouldn’t be required.

That said, boosting under 65 is certainly something to consider as broadens the level of protection further training memory cells by expanding their ability to create a wider level of protection against a more expansive range of variants. It should also help to provide better longevity moving forward.

At no point in history have we asked as much from a vaccine whereby it’s expected to stop all infections. If we want that we’re asking way too much from these vaccines. What we should be doing is vaccinating the unvaccinated to slow and or eliminate the chance of vaccine evading and or more virulent variants. Continually doubling down on those who have adequate protection is a redundant approach. It’s looking like travel to Australia currently requires three doses and or two (I assume) if it was the J and J vaccine. QLD currently requires two doses and is sitting on the fence about adopting a three-dose policy. If QLD adopts a three-dose policy, then I suspect NZ will also.

Moving Towards Endemic Normality

The government has recently made changes to the quarantine rules bringing them more into line with other countries. It’s therefore also possible that they may follow by dropping covid passes soon too which is happening elsewhere and as it turns out was announced a week or so later. Counting infections as a dose also seems to be not far from fruition in various countries with papers showing infections for the most part are as effective as a single dose. Anyone infected while unvaccinated should get at least one dose around 8-12 weeks post-recovery.

It appears that govt will be dropping some of the mandates in the coming weeks with discussions taking place over the next 24 hours. The legislation expires on the 1st of June but with the borders opening in May I believe the vaccine passports will be dropped around a week beforehand. With a bit of luck, omicron will have peaked countrywide by then with patient numbers dropping to a more manageable caseload. While I see the covid passports coming to an end and while unvaccinated kiwis can return, I believe govt will retain a 2 dose vaccine requirement for entry of non-nationals.

Herd Immunity Defined

For herd immunity, enough people need to be vaccinated (or have good virus-induced immunity, which isn’t always the case and is an extremely unwise way to obtain immunity). Many of us have heard statements surrounding what’s required to get to herd immunity and watched the goalposts move as new variants emerged, but who understands how the percentage is determined?

The formula for herd immunity is R-naught minus one over R-naught divided by vaccine efficacy. For instance, if you have an R-naught of 5 (the average R-naught of Delta), it’s 5 minus 1 over 5 being 0.8, divided by vaccine efficacy, which being generous is 90%. Therefore it’s 0.8 divided by 0.9 which equals 0.89, meaning a minimum of 89% of the entire population needs immunity.

If Omicron has an R-naught of 7, the equation would be 7 minus 1 equals 6 divided by 7 equals 0.857 and we know efficacy has reduced for the vaccine with omicron, so let’s call it 80% (also generous). Therefore it’s 0.857 divided by 0.8 equals 1.07 meaning 100% of population immunity. To get back to normal life as soon as possible we must all work together by getting vaccinated.

For context, let’s imagine we’re back in 2019 with D614G which came out of China and the Alpha variant first found in the UK, (the second following the market variants) had an R-naught of two. For ease of comparison, let’s say our vaccine had 100% efficacy. Based on the formula we would need 50% of the population vaccinated. Likewise, if the vaccine had 50% efficacy, we would need 100% of the population vaccinated to get herd immunity. There are some factors to consider that may reduce the result by a few percentage points but for the most part, the formula is accurate.

Categories and Links

NB: The categories and links below (in no particular order) may change without notice. Some of the links listed are more for reference to things discussed during the pandemic than necessary being factually correct and or relevant in the moment, so take the material with a grain of salt. Links of greater importance and aren’t NEW are marked with *** while any preprints and or peer-reviewed papers that are listed outside of their respective headings are now marked with ^^^